Leaders from six non-nuclear countries have openly discussed the possibility of developing their own nuclear arsenals, raising concerns about a potential new nuclear arms race, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi. Grossi warned that some of the 191 signatories to the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) may violate the agreement, leading to a potential chain reaction where up to 20 states could pursue nuclear weapons.
Countries such as Poland, South Korea, and Japan have deliberated acquiring nuclear arsenals, while officials in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Sweden have indicated they might consider such actions if global instability rises and NATO weakens.
In an interview with The Telegraph, Grossi expressed his concerns about the discussions on “friendly proliferation” in several regions, stating that a world with 20 or more nuclear weapon states would pose significant dangers. He emphasized the risks of a nuclear arms race, describing it as his “worst fear” and highlighting the fragility of the current global security system.
The NPT recognizes only five countries – the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China – as nuclear-weapon states. These countries collectively possess more than 12,300 nuclear warheads, with Russia holding 5459, the US 5277, and the UK 225.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland indicated a potential interest in acquiring nuclear weapons while emphasizing the country’s commitment to nuclear security. South Korea has seen a majority of its population supporting the development of a nuclear arsenal, reaching a record high in a recent survey.
Japan, a key NPT signatory, has been urged by some officials to consider acquiring nuclear weapons due to security concerns. While Japan has not signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), citing the necessity of nuclear deterrence for its national security, it remains committed to non-proliferation efforts.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that Turkey might explore nuclear weapons options based on global developments. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince reiterated the country’s intention to pursue a nuclear arsenal if Iran were to develop one. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson ruled out permanent nuclear weapons on Swedish soil during peacetime but acknowledged the potential for change in wartime scenarios.
The discussions surrounding nuclear proliferation underscore the shifting dynamics of global security and the delicate balance of power among nations.