Concerns regarding the rising cost of living due to the tensions between Donald Trump and Iran have escalated, with the Iranian government considering closing the Strait of Hormuz as a potential tactic to harm Western economies economically.
The uncertainty surrounding the status of the vital trade route, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has largely kept closed since reaching a ceasefire with the Trump administration, has led to persistently high prices for crude oil and related products like petrol. While negotiations for a peace deal are scheduled to recommence today in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, leaders on both sides are demonstrating their power.
Iran has significant control over the Hormuz strait and also relies on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an alternative passage. This alternative route, located off the coast of Yemen and several thousand miles to the west, is being utilized for shipping as traffic through the Hormuz strait is halted.
However, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is under the control of Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, who have threatened to close it down, according to a UK intelligence report. The report also indicates that Iran possesses a substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, with US intelligence assessments suggesting they maintain a significant portion of their pre-conflict stockpiles.
A senior official from the Houthi rebels in Yemen has warned that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be shut if President Donald Trump continues to impede peace efforts. This strait serves as a crucial shipping route connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and facilitating global trade, especially the transportation of oil and fuels between the Gulf, Europe, and Asia.
If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, experts caution that the global economy could suffer significantly, impacting major oil exporters immediately. Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, highlighted the potential economic repercussions, emphasizing the strain it would place on regional countries like Saudi Arabia that heavily rely on these shipping routes for oil exports.
Raydan further noted that any closure similar to the Strait of Hormuz would have profound effects on the global economy by hindering the movement of various commodities through key chokepoints in the region.
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